It’s got to be Rick who gets his head smashed in. Well, okay – it doesn’t have to be him.
The first thing which is weird after the The Walking Dead season finale is that Glenn is actually the safest member of the group. The producers already messed about with him with the fake-death thing from earlier in the season, and they removed his name from the credits to play with us some more.So to mess with Glenn again might seem a little lame.
Also, Glenn is the character who gets killed by Negan in the comics, so it would be too obvious to make it him who gets battered.
How to think about the likely victim?
First, if it’s not a major character, then what’s the point, right? A supporting character’s death doesn’t justify the off-season wait to find out who it was, and it would irritate the fans to wait that long for a minor character be revealed as dead. So logic requires it’s a major name.
So who are classed as major names? I’d say – and in order of majorness:
Rick, Daryl, Carol, Glenn, Michonne, Abraham, Maggie, Carl, Eugene, Morgan, Sasha, Rosita, Gabriel, Tara, Aaron.
It’s an order which can be argued about, but no matter.
Okay, so does long-term character or series regular mean the same as major character? I think not, so the list becomes:
Rick, Daryl, Carol, Glenn, Michonne, Abraham, Maggie, Carl.
I’ve alread discounted Glenn, so the list becomes:
Rick, Daryl, Carol, Michonne, Abraham, Maggie, Carl.
But Carol isn’t there because she’s off with Morgan, getting shot, so the list becomes:
Rick, Daryl, Michonne, Abraham, Maggie, Carl.
Now, who of those could die without the viewers caring too much? Abraham. So that leaves:
Rick, Daryl, Michonne, Maggie, Carl.
At a push, Carl could die without too much uproar: he’s already tainted goods in anycase because of his eye, so I don’t see the audience caring too much if it were him. So that leaves:
Rick, Daryl, Michonne, Maggie.
If Negan wanted to show he was a real evil shit, he’d kill a kid or a woman; if Carl’s discounted, that leaves Maggie. But why would Negan kill the most vulnerable of them? Surely he’d want to weaken their group by taking out a strong member? He wants to make sure they know he’s now in charge. That leaves:
Rick and Daryl.
The best way to assert your authority is by killing the enemy leader. That leaves…..
Rick is the character to die.
He’s the least likely because everyone would consider him the safest.
Spolia Opima Baby.